Friday, November 6, 2026 · Published 7:40 AM MT
The Morning Call
A 1–100 rating on the trading day ahead. Above 55 leans up, below 45 leans down, 45–55 is flat or mixed. Ratings are never revised.
49
Outlook Rating
Flat to mixed, slight downside lean — a fragile tech bounce against a hawkish jobs print; the Dow likely lags.
Why today
- The jobs blowout keeps the Fed hawkish. October NFP +165K vs +65K expected, unemployment down to 4.1%, wages +0.4% in the month — December hike odds jumped to ~75–78% after the report, from ~68–70% before it.
- Futures are split — a tech bounce, a Dow drag. Nasdaq futures +1.4–1.5%, S&P futures +0.1–0.2%, Dow futures −0.9% after the jobs data. Chips are bouncing hard off Thursday's wreckage — NVDA +4.6% premarket, AMD +~8%, Micron +8%+ — but Cramer warns it is "too early to trust this rebound."
- Yields rose on the jobs print. Koyfin live: 2Y 4.528%, 5Y 4.652%, 10Y 4.866%, 30Y 5.267% — the front end firming on the hot print, though the 10Y is still below Monday's ~4.91%.
- Thursday's rout is the tape's context. Worst day since April 2025: S&P −4.36%, Nasdaq −5.52% into correction, all 11 sectors red, tech −8.00%, SOX −12.25%. The VIX closed ~28.15 (+69%). One green premarket does not repair that damage.
- Earnings beats that matter, capped by the macro. Airbnb +14% (Q3 beat, Q4 guide beat, raised outlook), Iren +16%, Moderna +3% — against DraftKings −25%+ and a WSJ report that Anthropic's planned $1.5T IPO now looks doubtful.
Data snapshot
| Measure | Reading |
|---|
| Treasury 2Y | 4.528% ▲ (Koyfin live, 9:22 AM ET) |
| Treasury 5Y | 4.652% ▲ (Koyfin live, 9:22 AM ET) |
| Treasury 10Y | 4.866% ▲ (Koyfin live, 9:22 AM ET) |
| Treasury 30Y | 5.267% ▲ (Koyfin live, 9:22 AM ET) |
| VIX | ~27.5 ▼ (vs Thursday close ~28.15) |
| S&P 500 futures (ES) | ▲ +0.2% post-jobs |
| Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) | ▲ +1.5% post-jobs |
| Dow futures (YM) | ▼ −0.9% post-jobs |
| Gold | ~$4,037 ▼ (−1.6%, Koyfin XAUUSD) |
| Bitcoin | ~$75,700 ▼ (−~5% overnight) |
Prior-day closes (Thu Nov 5): Dow 51,521.28 (−3.44%), S&P 500 7,358.13 (−4.30%), Nasdaq 24,315 (−5.52%).
How the call did
Judged at the close. See the End of Day Update →