This morning we rated the day 44 of 100 — cautious. What happened next is the day, drawn the way it actually flowed, and narrated by Tom.
Before the open, futures couldn't agree: Dow futures +0.64%, Nasdaq futures −0.91%. The split was the day in miniature. The Dow opened as the only green index and fell the least; tech fell the most. Chips led the slide — Qualcomm dropped 10% on a weak forecast and Arm fell 7% as the data-center trade unwound — and by 9 AM the Nasdaq was down five and a half percent.
A midday bounce in the S&P clawed back about half a percent, then faded. By the close, the Nasdaq was in correction — 10% below its October record — and the S&P had its worst day since April 2025. The 10-year yield eased from 4.91% to 4.84% as money hid in bonds; it didn't cushion stocks at all.
The morning call was 44 — cautious, a down day expected. Verdict: held. The direction was right; the size of it, nobody had. The call, then the receipts.
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